Alloy Analytics recently completed a poll of 500 likely Republican primary voters on the state of Arizona's Republican Primary race for U.S. Senate showing Blake Masters with a commanding 12% lead in the wake of his Trump endorsement. Opponents Jim Lamon and Mark Brnovich have cratered to 14% and 10% respectively. 45% of respondents remain undecided, however, leaving plenty of opportunity to make an impression over the final 3 weeks of the Primary.
This race had been statistically tied between the 3 candidates above at many points in the election, but armed with the Trump Endorsement, Masters has broken out and is holding on to the lead. Full toplines and crosstabs are attached at the bottom of the page. Interviews were conducted June 5th-6th, 2022.
Master's breakout is best illustrated below by aggregating all publicly available polling data and creating a moving average of the Candidate's polling position. After the June 2nd endorsement, Master's momentum surged and recent polling shows that momentum being sticky as early ballots go out to Arizona voters.
The Primary has been extremely dynamic, with Masters, Lamon, and Brnovich all holding leads at various points. Note that Master's lead in the last 3 publicly released polls is the largest that any candidate has maintained throughout the primary.
Blake Master's base of support is among the 46% of respondents that said they are "Primarily a supporter of Donald Trump" when asked "Would you say you consider yourself to be primarily a supporter of Donald Trump, or a supporter of the Republican Party". His lead with this group is an enormous 26%.
Blake Master's lead shrinks dramatically to 2% among the 46% of respondents that answered that they are "Primarily a supporter of the Republican Party".
Blake Masters is also seeing regional support in his home County. In Pima County, the county the city of Tucson lies in, Masters has a 21% lead. In Arizona's most Populus county, Maricopa County, Masters lead is 11%.
Our sample contains a notable amount of respondents who have voted in 0 of the last 4 primary elections and 1 of 4 of the last primary elections, as turnout in states with recent primaries is showing elevated turnout amongst atypical primary voters. These voters are still largely undecided with a majority of respondents who have participated in 0 of the last 4 primary elections or 1 of 4 of the last 4 primary elections responding that they are undecided on who they are going to vote for in the race.
In Ohio, the number of 4 of 4 and 3 of 4 primary voters participating in the 2022 Republican Primary election shrunk from 56% in 2018 to 44% in 2022. Voters that had participated in 0 of 4 and 1 of 4 of the last 4 primary elections increased from 24% in 2018 to 35% in 2022.
In Georgia, the number of 4 of 4 and 3 of 4 primary voters participating in the 2022 Republican Primary election fell from 53% in 2018 to 32% in 2022. Voters that had participated in 0 of 4 and 1 of 4 of the last 4 primary elections increased from 29% in 2018 to 50% in 2022.
These numbers are informing our sampling for Arizona, as we believe surveying less frequent primary voters is critical for accuracy this cycle.
Methodology
Interview Dates: July 5th – 6th, 2022
Target Population: Arizona Likely Republican Primary Voters
Sampling Method: Text-to-Web survey Respondents were randomly sampled from a universe of likely Republican Primary voters derived from a state voter file. Online panel survey respondents were randomly drawn from opted-in panelists that were verified likely Republican Primary voters and matched to the voter file.
Weighting: The sample was weighted based on 2020 Presidential election vote, education, age, race, party, and primary vote history. Weighting targets were derived from a statewide voter file appended with consumer data, modeled primary turnout based on comparable 2022 primary electorates, and the 2020 Presidential Election to accurately reflect the demographics of likely midterm Republican Primary turnout.
Number of respondents: 500
Margin of error: +/- 4.4%
Survey Modes: SMS Text-to-Web Surveys & Voter file matched online panels
About Us
Traditional polling is becoming more expensive and less accurate. Alloy Analytics was founded to address this problem. By combining the best techniques created by traditional pollsters with modern polling technology, Alloy Analytics has created a fast, affordable, and accurate answer to traditional polling.
We utilize the full range of outreach methods to reach voters more efficiently and accurately than traditional pollsters. By blending samples of live calls, text-to-web, and voter file matched online panels we reach the full range of voters that traditional pollsters using only live call polls and traditional weighting are missing.
Traditional pollsters have become unreliable due to surveying too many hyper engaged voters and voters that trust institutions more than average. Alloy Analytics addresses this by layering in multiple screeners and weighting questions, so our samples more accurately reflect actual turnout.
Learn more: Landon@AlloyAnalytics.org
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