Alloy Analytics recently completed a statewide poll in Arizona of 500 likely general election voters that showed that a majority of Arizonans believe Senator Kyrsten Sinema should oppose the Democrat’s proposed spending bill.
53% of respondents said that “Senator Sinema should oppose any major spending bill that includes tax increases on local employers and family-owned businesses and manufacturers at this time”
Only 40% that said “Senator Sinema should work with Democrat leaders to come up with a compromise spending bill that includes tax increases on local employers and family-owned businesses and manufacturers”
50% of respondents said they would be less likely to vote for Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 if she supports the new spending bill
Only 19% said they would be more likely to vote for Sinema
48% of Independents say they would be less likely to vote for Sinema VS 20% saying they would be more likely
35% of Democrats say they would be less likely to vote for Sinema VS 27% saying they would be more likely
Inflationary Risk
54% of respondents believe that a major spending and tax bill would cause inflation to increase
58% believe that “Inflation in the United States is the worst it has been in my lifetime”
77% responded that it is more difficult to pay for everyday goods and services than it was 5 years ago
“Inflation and the cost of living” was the #1 issue when respondents were asked "which issue is personally most important to you in deciding your vote for Governor and US Senate"
63% believe said that Congress should not increase taxes during a recession
59% of respondents believe the United States is already in a recession
Risk to Medicare
Voters have little faith that the bill's promised drug cost savings will materialize with 48% of respondents saying that "seniors on Medicare are not likely to see any drug cost savings under such a government run program" VS only 37% answering that seniors will see drug cost savings
Additionally, when asked "Which one of the following healthcare issues is most important to you?" cost of prescription medications was only 8% of respondent's top issue.
"Ensure Medicare remains solvent" was the top issue at 26% and "Cost of out-of-pocket medical expenses like insurance co-pays and deductibles" was the second top issue with 21%.
Of the 48% of respondents that don't believe drug cost savings will materialize, 32% answered that it would because "Politicians will spend any savings on unrelated programs" and 27% answered "Government programs are inefficient and the savings will disappear"
69% of all respondents said that "revenues meant to lower prescription drug costs for seniors in Medicare should not be diverted to pay for unrelated spending programs"
57% of voters said said that they would be less likely to vote for Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 if she supports a new spending bill that cuts or diverts funds from Medicare to pay for unrelated spending outside of the Medicare program
38% of Democrats said the above would make them less likely to vote for Sinema in 2024 VS 14% that said it would make them more likely and 35% who said it would make no difference
48% of Independents said the above would make them less likely to vote for Sinema, 10% more likely, 36% no difference
Favorability Ratings
With Senator Kyrsten Sinema's favorability rating being 11% net unfavorable, 21% lower than her seatmate Senator Mark Kelly's 10% net favorable rating and on par with President Joe Biden's 13% net unfavorable rating, supporting this deeply unpopular bill will only make re-election more challenging.
Methodology
This survey of 500 likely general election voters was conducted statewide in Arizona from 7/31 to 8/1. Responses were collected 100% SMS Text-To-Web. This survey has a margin of error of 4.3% with a 95% confidence interval.
Survey respondents were weighted based on 2020 Presidential election vote, education, age, race, county, and party. Weighting targets were derived from a statewide voter file, appended with consumer data and the 2020 Presidential Election to accurately reflect the demographics of likely midterm general election turnout.
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